October 31, 2008
Intrade Odds on Prop 8
Intrade is an exchange that facilitates the matching of orders from its customers. Intrade ensures that trading profits and losses are transferred between customers in a timely manner and allows customers to close out positions by trading with any other customer. Intrade does not enter into trades on the exchange. …Are Intrade Predictions better than Polls?
Whether prediction markets like Intrade can predict more accurately than opinion polls has been studied. Based on past performance prediction markets seem to be more accurate. Does that mean prediction markets like Intrade will be in every instance? No. But we believe that the market mechanism is superior to a polling mechanism. Also, the Intrade prediction market will aggregate information from the polls (and perhaps poll participants will also be influenced by the predictions from the markets).
How can Intrade’s Predictions be So Wrong?
The predictions or prices on intrade are predictions, they are not guarantees or certainties. A market that is trading at 90, means that there is a 90% chance of the event happening. 90% means the event it is highly likely to occur, but not guaranteed. Intrade’s predictions have been wrong in the past, and will be again in the future. However, the Intrade market mechanism of aggregating opinions to give the an estimate of likelihood of an uncertain future event occurring is the best one we know.
As of October 31, 2008, 3:47 p.m. PDT:
| Contract | Bid | Ask | Last | Vol | Chge |
| CAL.GAY.MARRIAGE.BAN California to pass Constitutional Amendment banning same-sex marriage |
25.5 | 37.0 | 25.1 | 2014 | -15.9 |
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Filed Under: California, Civil Rights, Marriage, Proposition 8
