It’s still way too tight for comfort, but victory is very much within reach.
Release #2292
Release Date and Time: 6:00 a.m., Friday, October 31, 2008
PROP. 8 (SAME-SEX MARRIAGE BAN) DIVIDING 49% NO – 44% YES, WITH MANY VOTERS IN CONFLICT…
One of the most closely watched statewide election contests in years concerns Proposition 8, the proposed state constitutional amendment to ban same-sex couples from marrying in California. The controversial initiative has produced an outpouring of a reported $60 million in campaign contributions from over 64,000 people in all fifty states and more than twenty foreign countries.
In its final pre-election survey, The Field Poll shows the No-side continuing to prevail over the Yes-side but by a narrower margin than previously. The poll, completed one week before the election, shows 49% of likely voters voting No, 44% on the Yes side and 7% undecided.
The poll finds significant proportions of both Yes and No voters in conflict about the issues involved in the same-sex marriage debate, with many Yes voters concurring with some anti-Prop. 8 arguments and sizeable proportions of No voters recognizing the merits of some pro-Prop. 8 claims. …
These are the findings from the latest Field Poll conducted October 18-28 among a random sample of 966 likely voters statewide.
Trend of voter preferences on Proposition 8 (Same-Sex Marriage Ban)
Prop. 8 trailed in The Field Poll’s initial measurement in July by nine points (51% No to 42% Yes) taken shortly after it qualified for the ballot.
The No-side advantage increased to fourteen points (52% to 38%) in September, when voters were asked to react to its original ballot description, which referred to the measure as the “Limit on Marriage” initiative. However, following the state Supreme Court’s ruling that the state’s existing same-sex marriage ban was unconstitutional, thereby making it legal for same-sex couples to marry in California, state Attorney General Jerry Brown changed Prop. 8’s official ballot title to the “Eliminates Right of Same-Sex Couples to Marry” initiative. When voters were read this amended description in September, the No-side lead grew to seventeen points (55% No vs. 38% Yes).
Now, after more than a month of intensive campaigning on both sides, the initiative trails by just five points, 49% No vs. 44% Yes, with 7% undecided. Yes-side support has increased six points, and those opposed declining six points over the past month.
Table 1
Trend of likely voter preferences regarding Prop. 8, the constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriages |
|
Yes |
No |
Undecided |
| Late October |
44% |
49 |
7 |
| September (using amended ballot description) |
38% |
55 |
7 |
| September (using original ballot description) |
38% |
52 |
10 |
| July |
42% |
51 |
7 |
. . .
Prop. 8 demographic differences
The relatively close 49% No vs. 44% Yes division of preferences on Prop. 8 masks many sharp splits across various demographic subgroups of the state’s likely voter population.
Democrats are strongly opposing the initiative by a margin of 65% to 28%. Voters supporting Barack Obama for President are even more likely to be opposing Prop. 8 (73% No vs. 21% Yes). By contrast, Republicans are extremely supportive of the initiative, with 75% now on the Yes side and 20% voting No. Supporters of John McCain for President are even more heavily on the Yes side – 84% Yes and 13% No. Voters registered as non-partisans or who are affiliated with other parties are opposing Prop. 8 by a roughly two to one ratio – 60% No and 31% Yes.
There is a huge ideological divide on this issue. Strong conservatives are nearly eight to one in favor of the initiative (87% to 10%), while voters who are strongly liberal in politics take a completely opposite view, with 86% opposing Prop. 8 and just 10% in favor. Voters who say they take a middle-of-the-road position in politics are voting No by eleven points (51% to 40%).
Californians intending to vote early or by mail will likely comprise almost half (47%) of all voters in next week’s election. These voters are narrowly favoring the initiative 48% to 45%. In addition, among the 22% of voters who had already voted at the time the survey was completed, the Yes side was leading by six points (50% to 44%). This differs from the voting preferences of those intending to vote at their local precincts next Tuesday. These voters oppose Prop. 8 by a 52% to 41% margin.
There is a clear geographic divide in voting preferences on Prop. 8. Voters living in the state’s coastal counties, which constitutes 71% of all likely voters, are heavily on the No side, with 54% opposed and 39% in favor. This contrasts with voters living in the state’s inland counties who are backing the initiative, 57% to 37%.
The poll finds women opposing the same sex marriage ban by nine points (51% to 42%), while men are about evenly divided – 47% No and 46% Yes.
All age subgroups under age 65 are opposing Prop. 8 by doubled-digit margins. However, voters 65 and over are strongly in favor of the initiative, backing Prop. 8 by a nearly two to one margin (62% Yes vs. 32% No).
White non-Hispanic voters, who comprise about two-thirds of all likely voters, are currently opposing Prop. 8 by six points – 50% to 44%. Latinos, who comprise about 19% of likely voters, are about evenly divided (48% No vs. 46% Yes). African-Americans and Asians/others hold mixed views about the initiative, with the former narrowly backing Prop. 8 and the latter narrowly opposed.
There are big differences in preferences according to a voter’s education level. Voters with no more than a high school education are favoring Prop. 8 by two and one-half to one (62% to 27%). By contrast, voters who have a post-graduate education are taking an opposite view and are voting No nearly two to one (61% to 33%).
A voter’s religious affiliation also relates to preferences on Prop. 8. Protestants are very much in favor of Prop. 8, with 60% on the Yes side and 33% voting No. Catholics are about evenly divided (48% No vs. 44% Yes). By contrast, voters affiliated with other non-Christian religions or who have no religious preference are heavily opposed to the proposed ban on same-sex marriages.
A very large majority of this state’s voters (78%) say they personally know or work with people who are gay or lesbian. These voters are inclined to be voting No on Prop. 8 (51% No vs. 43% Yes). The much smaller proportion of voters who are not personally familiar with gays or lesbians, on the other hand, are lining up on the Yes side 50% to 42%.
. . .
Pro and con arguments about Prop. 8
In this survey voters were read ten arguments about Prop. 8 – five in favor and five against – that have been featured by supporters and opponents, as well as in news commentaries about the initiative, and asked whether they agreed or disagreed with each statement.
The results reveal the very complex nature of the issues at stake, with many Yes voters allowing that they agree with some anti-Prop. 8 statements and many No voters recognizing the merits of some of the pro-Prop. 8 arguments.
Reactions to arguments in favor
One argument in favor of Prop. 8 draws the broadest level of agreement. This relates to the view that “the institution of traditional marriage between a man and a woman is one of the cornerstones of our country’s Judeo-Christian heritage.” Statewide, 65% of voters agree with this statement, including 39% of those intending to vote No.
A 50% to 36% plurality of voters concurs with another Yes side argument that “Prop. 8 restores the institution of traditional marriage between a man and a woman, while not removing any domestic partnership rights that had previously been granted to gay and lesbian couples.”
A narrower plurality of likely voters (47% to 41%) also agrees with the view that “Prop. 8 reverses the flawed legal reasoning of activist judges who overturned the state’s previous voter-approved law defining marriage as between a man and a woman.” However, attitudes about this are closely tied to vote choices, with large majorities of Yes voters in agreement and most No voters disagreeing.
On the other hand, majorities of voters disagree with two other pro-Prop. 8 arguments. By a nearly two to one margin (60% to 32%), voters disagree with the statement “if Prop. 8 is not approved, the public schools could be required to teach kids that same sex marriage is as acceptable as traditional marriage in California.” Nearly as many (59%) disagree with the view that “gay rights leaders in California are moving too fast in their efforts to win new rights and legal protections for gays and lesbians.”
. . .
Opposing arguments
When presented with five arguments opposing the initiative, a majority of likely voters concurs with four of them.
Sixty-one percent are in accord with the statement that “by eliminating the right of gay and lesbian couples to marry, Prop. 8 denies one class of citizens the right to enjoy the dignity and responsibility of marriage.”
Nearly as large majorities also say they agree with each of these three anti-Prop. 8 arguments: “matters relating to the definition of marriage should not be written into the constitution” (58%); “domestic partnership laws by themselves do not give gay and lesbian couples the same certainty and security that marriage laws provide” (58%); and, “extending new rights and legal protections to different peoples and lifestyles, such as gays and lesbians, benefits California and the nation in the long run” (57%). Significant proportions of Yes voters concur with the first two of these statements.
A smaller plurality of voters also concur with the view that “followers of the Mormon Church are exerting too much influence on the state’s political process by underwriting an estimated 40 percent of the Yes on Proposition 8’s campaign contributions.” Statewide 40% of voters agrees with this view, 33% disagree and 27% have no opinion.
. . .
Information About The Survey
Sample Details
The findings in this report are based on a random sample survey of 966 likely voters in California. Interviewing was conducted by telephone in English and Spanish between the period October 18-28, 2008. Up to six attempts were made to reach and interview each randomly selected voter on different days and times of day during the interviewing period. In order to cover a broad range of issues and still minimize voter fatigue, the overall voter sample was divided into two random subsamples of 481 and 485 likely voters each on the proposition races other than Prop. 8.
The sample was developed from telephone listings of individual voters selected at random from a statewide list of registered voters in California. Once a voter’s name and telephone number has been selected, interviews are attempted only with the specified voter. Interviews were conducted on either the voter’s landline or cell phone, depending on the source of the telephone listing or the voter’s preference. After the completion of interviewing, the results were weighted slightly to Field Poll estimates of the demographic and regional characteristics of the state’s registered voter population.
Sampling error estimates applicable to any probability-based survey depends on the sample size. The maximum sampling error for results based on the overall sample of likely voters is +/- 3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, while findings from the random subsamples have a maximum sampling error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. The maximum sampling error is based on percentages in the middle of the sampling distribution (percentages around 50%). Percentages at either end of the distribution (percentages around 10% or around 90%) have a smaller margin of error. While there are other potential sources of error in surveys besides sampling error, the overall design and execution of the survey minimized the potential for these other sources of error. The maximum sampling error will be larger for analyses based on subgroups of the overall sample.
Questions Asked
ASKED OF ALL VOTERS
Have you seen, read or heard anything about Proposition 8, the state constitutional amendment having to do with same sex marriages on the November statewide election ballot?
(As you know) Proposition 8 is the initiative to “Eliminate the Right of Same-Sex Couples to Marry” constitutional amendment. It changes the California Constitution to eliminate the right of same-sex couples to marry and provides that only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California. Fiscal impact: Potential revenue loss over the next few years, mainly to sales taxes, totaling several tens of millions of dollars to state and local government. (IF NOT ALREADY VOTED: If the election were being held today, would you vote YES or NO on Prop. 8?) (IF ALREADY VOTED: Did you vote YES or NO on Prop. 8?)
People recognize the truth when they hear it — but the only way to make sure the truth reaches them is to get it out on the airwaves.
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I lived in Torrance for years, and never saw anybody local who looked like he just stepped out of the centerfold spread of Skinheads Illustrated. I guess the neighborhood’s gone downhill. Way downhill:
