July 18, 2008

California: Prop 8 Down By 9; Meanwhile, Backers in Lovers’ Quarrel

Before we gets to the news, I want to encourage you to keep a close eye on the Newswire over the next couple of days — no, not because I’m whoring for traffic, but because I’m launching a special project this weekend.

A good many LGBT bloggers are fascinated (and rightly so) by the wealth of public information available from the California Secretary of State about the financial backers of Proposition 8. While some of it is what you’d expect (e.g., James Dobson’s hate-ridden Focus on the Family is among the top contributors), there’s a lot you wouldn’t expect.

My goal is to provide easy-to-digest profiles of some very interesting names on the Sec’s list, and, perhaps even more importantly, graphic depictions of how all these anti-gay organizations (and individuals) are connected.

(Let me put it this way: Buffy and I realized only last night that we must pull all of our banking business out of Washington Mutual. The reason is just the sort of thing you’re going to learn.)

That’s all I’ll say about it for now — I could talk about it all day, but then I’d never get it done — so keep your browser on the Newswire this weekend. I am certain you will find this information very enlightening — and useful.

Now, onto the news — which, so far, is all good. (But don’t let your guard down!)

Measure to prohibit gay unions is trailing

SACRAMENTO — Proposition 8, the constitutional amendment that would ban same-sex marriage in California, is opposed by 51 percent of likely voters with 42 percent in favor, according to a new Field Poll.

Those results put the proposed ban in a politically perilous position in the Nov. 4 election, said Mark DiCamillo, director of the nonpartisan Field Poll.

“Starting out behind is usually an ominous sign for a proposition,” DiCamillo said. “Over 90 percent of propositions that start out behind get taken down.”

Typically, ballot measures start out ahead, but become less popular as the opposition campaign begins raising questions and creating doubt, he said. …

The poll is the first to question voters using the measure’s exact language. But the results are similar to a Field Poll on the same topic in May, shortly after the California Supreme Court overturned laws that prohibited same-sex marriage.

That poll found that for the first time, a slim majority of California voters supported same-sex marriages being legal, 51 percent to 42 percent.

The new poll found a predictable partisan division: Republicans support the constitutional ban 68 percent to 27 percent while Democrats oppose it 63 percent to 30 percent. Nonpartisan and minor-party members are even more strongly against it, 66 percent to 27 percent.

DiCamillo said he was not surprised that unaffiliated voters opposed Proposition 8 more than Democrats because those voters tend to be younger than Democrats or Republicans. …

However, the recent poll found the opposition to the ban strongest among voters between 50 and 64 years old, with 57 percent opposed and 38 percent in support. …

And some say Baby Boomers are out of touch. Not.

Both sides vow to conduct a vigorous campaign to inform voters. But relatively few voters — only 7 percent — say they are undecided.

In contrast to other initiatives, voters have a relatively high awareness of Proposition 8, with 62 percent reporting that they have seen or heard something about the proposed amendment. …

Voters approved Proposition 22 in 2000 with 61 percent in support and 39 percent opposed. Proposition 8 has the same language as Proposition 22, but it carries more legal weight because it would amend the California Constitution.

The poll also found that those who know or work with gays and lesbians oppose the ban 54 percent to 40 percent, while those who have no personal familiarity with gays or lesbians support the ban. …

Regionally, the poll showed the strongest opposition to Proposition 8 came from voters in the San Francisco Bay Area, who were opposed 67 percent to 26 percent. The strongest support came from the Central Valley, where the amendment was backed 54 percent to 39 percent.

In Los Angeles County, the poll showed that likely voters oppose the measure, 51 percent to 41 percent, while Southern California counties outside Los Angeles – including San Diego – are more evenly split, with 50 percent against and 45 percent in favor.

The same-sex marriage issue isn’t expected to have a major impact on the presidential race and neither candidate brings the topic up very often, but they are on opposite sides on Proposition 8. …

The Field Poll, conducted July 8 through Monday, is based on surveys with 672 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.

Next, it appears the cracks in the anti-gay movement are getting deeper:

Division Emerges Among Foes of Calif. Same-Sex Marriages

A united front by conservative forces against same-sex marriage in California is showing signs of cracking — or of having been an illusion all along.

Last week, the proponents of Proposition 8, a constitutional amendment that would limit marriage to heterosexual couples, asked the California Supreme Court to prevent another conservative group — the Campaign for California Families — from intervening in a suit that could determine whether that issue stays on the November ballot.

In a short brief filed Thursday, Folsom, Calif., lawyer Andrew Pugno, counsel for ProtectMarriage.com, argued that rather than back Prop 8, the CCF actively campaigned against it for years in favor of another amendment that would have sharply curtailed all gay rights. …

In an interview Monday, Pugno referred to the CCF as “extremists” who want to go beyond the issue of marriage and “strip away gay rights” of any kind.

Not that this is anything we haven’t already known for some time; it’s just sweet to hear one of the bad guys outing the real goal of the rest of the bad guys: The “protecting the family” spiel is just a steaming pile of crap; their real goal is to strip us of all our hard-won rights — protections in housing, employment, public accommodation, adoption, you name it — permanently.

Mathew Staver, founder and president of the Florida-based Liberty Counsel, which represents the CCF, said Monday he was “disappointed and confused” by Pugno’s motion. But he said his group is determined to back Prop 8. …

Although Pugno and Staver insist there is no rift, their opponents see an ideological schism in the conservative position. The CCF and Pugno’s clients, ProtectMarriage.com, had seemed bosom buddies until last week, even presenting the most conservative positions as a tandem during the Supreme Court’s same-sex marriage arguments in March.

“There appears to be some disagreement between the two groups,” said Shannon Minter, legal director of the San Francisco-based National Center for Lesbian Rights, one of the groups that filed the lawsuit to challenge Prop 8. “They realize the tide of history is against them,” he said. “They are becoming more desperate and shrill, and under those circumstances, divisions tend to emerge.” …

Let’s hear this one more time:

…Pugno told the high court that the CCF had fought efforts to get Prop 8 on the ballot. He attached an August 2005 letter sent out by the campaign and others that urged voters to oppose the amendment that would become Prop 8.

In that letter, the campaign called the proposed proposition a “flawed amendment” that “will forever permit homosexual ‘marriage’ by another name in California by allowing all the rights of marriage to go to gay couples.” The letter urged voters instead to support the campaign’s own separate amendment that would limit marriage to a man and a woman, eliminate domestic partnerships and many gay rights already provided by companies and other organizations.

Called the Voters’ Right to Protect Marriage Initiative, it failed to get enough signatures to make the ballot. …

Stephen Bomse, the Heller Ehrman partner who is working with civil rights groups to legally block Prop 8, said he “chuckled” when he saw Pugno’s opposition to the campaign’s intervention. …

We’re chuckling, too. smirk